Building on previous literature (White et al. 2016), the Swiss TPH team has developed a model for Plasmodium vivax transmission to support decision-making and advocacy in countries where this parasite is dominant. This compartmental model accounts specifically for the liver stages of P. vivax malaria and it has recently been refined to include imported infections as well as treatment of blood and/or liver stages parasites. Additional ongoing development of the model include the account for delay in treatment and extensions to the stochastic framework for estimating probabilities of elimination under different scenarios.
The model can be calibrated to country specific data on reported local and imported cases, and it can be used to simulate the expected impact of malaria treatment schemes, vector control strategies or mass drug administration.
This model is currently being used to advocate for community health worker testing programs in Panama, by simulating the negative impact of delaying access to treatment. Additional uses are planned in the Global Mekong Region, in particular in Laos and Cambodia.
White, M et al. Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria. Proc. R. Soc. B. 2016.