Unit | Infectious Disease Modelling

The Infectious Disease Modelling unit makes use of techniques of computational sciences, statistics and mathematical modelling to better understand and to address contemporary issues in infectious disease and global health. Our main projects are on malaria, and other vector-borne diseases. We focus on understanding transmission dynamics, pathogenesis, and the impacts of health interventions in the contexts of real-world health systems.

Impact on Infectious Diseases

Our research helps to identify the potential of new innovations, such as new drugs or ways of killing mosquitoes. We investigate different strategies, and ways of allocating resources in order to achieve effective and equitable impact on infectious diseases.  We work closely with other major research institutions in low- and middle-income countries and in Switzerland. Our audience includes researchers, global health donors and public health policy makers.

Malaria Modelling Ressource Centre

The Malaria Modelling Resource Centre of this unit provides an outreach and response capacity enabling us to advise partners including malaria control programmes on the likely effects of different malaria interventions and integrated control strategies. This contributes to the Swiss TPH role as a WHO Collaborating Centre for Modelling, Monitoring and Training for Malaria Control and Elimination.



Melissa Penny

Melissa Penny, SNF Professor, PhD, PD

Pothin E et al. A methodology for malaria programme impact evaluation. Peer J. 2017(in press)

Ross P.P, Chitnis N, Pothin E, Smith T.A. A stochastic model for the probability of malaria extinction by mass drug administration. Malar J. 2017;16:376. DOI: 10.1186/s12936‑017‑2010‑x

McCann R.S et al. Assessment of the effect of larval source management and house improvement on malaria transmission when added to standard malaria control strategies in southern Malawi: study protocol for a cluster-randomised controlled trial. BMC Infect Dis. 2017;17:639. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2749-2

Abboubakar H, Buonomo B, Chitnis N. Erratum to: modelling the effects of malaria infection on mosquito biting behaviour and attractiveness of humans. Ricerche di Matematica. 2017(in press). DOI: 10.1007/s11587-017-0335-y

Yukich J et al. Estimation of malaria parasite reservoir coverage using reactive case detection and active community fever screening from census data with rapid diagnostic tests in southern Zambia: a re-sampling approach. Malar J. 2017;16:317. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-017-1962-1