Unit | Infectious Disease Modelling

The Infectious Disease Modelling unit makes use of techniques of computational sciences, statistics and mathematical modelling to better understand and to address contemporary issues in infectious disease and global health. Our main projects are on malaria, and other vector-borne diseases. We focus on understanding transmission dynamics, pathogenesis, and the impacts of health interventions in the contexts of real-world health systems.

Impact on Infectious Diseases

Our research helps to identify the potential of new innovations, such as new drugs or ways of killing mosquitoes. We investigate different strategies, and ways of allocating resources in order to achieve effective and equitable impact on infectious diseases.  We work closely with other major research institutions in low- and middle-income countries and in Switzerland. Our audience includes researchers, global health donors and public health policy makers.

Malaria Modelling Ressource Centre

The Malaria Modelling Resource Centre of this unit provides an outreach and response capacity enabling us to advise partners including malaria control programmes on the likely effects of different malaria interventions and integrated control strategies. This contributes to the Swiss TPH role as a WHO Collaborating Centre for Modelling, Monitoring and Training for Malaria Control and Elimination.


Melissa Penny

Professor Melissa Penny, PhD, PD

Burgert L et al. Ensemble modeling highlights importance of understanding parasite-host behavior in preclinical antimalarial drug development. Sci Rep. 2020;10:4410. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-61304-8

Castaño M.S et al. Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC). PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020;14:e0007976. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007976

Courlet P et al. Pharmacokinetic profiles of boosted darunavir, dolutegravir and lamivudine in aging people living with HIV. AIDS. 2020;34(1):103-108. DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000002372

Gallay J et al. Corrigendum to "LC-MS/MS method for the simultaneous analysis of seven antimalarials and two active metabolites in dried blood spots for applications in field trials: Analytical and clinical validation" [J. Pharm. Biomed. Anal. 154 (2018) 263-277]. J Pharm Biomed Anal. 2020;182:112759. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpba.2019.07.007

Grünberg M et al. qRT-PCR versus IFA-based quantification of male and female gametocytes in low-density Plasmodium falciparum infections and their relevance for transmission. J Infect Dis. 2020;221(4):598-607. DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz420