The Programme National de Lutte Contre le Paludisme (PNLP) of Benin is in the process of updating the National Strategic Plan (NSP) to achieve specific reductions in malaria burden over the coming decade, and specifically to reduce incidence to 25% relative to the current Business as Usual strategy by 2023.
OpenMalaria, a malaria transmission simulation platform developed by the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) in 2006, is used to simulate the impact of interventions in Benin. The collection of information and data on the epidemiological situation of malaria in Benin has made it possible to estimate the parameters required for the model and to simulate the transmission dynamics of infection for each of Benin’s communes since 2005. In collaboration with the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), intervention strategy scenarios were identified to simulate and compare the relative impacts of each strategy according to three different outcomes of interest: prevalence, incidence and mortality.
Global historical prevalence estimates from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) were used to calibrate the OpenMalaria model. Several modifications of existing interventions as well as their combinations were considered in order to allow an assessment of their impact in each commune.
The objective of this analysis is to establish the stratification necessary to achieve the goals laid out in the NSP with respect to malaria reduction, principally a prevalence reduction of 25% in 2023 relative to the current Business as Usual strategy. The modelling tool has proven to be very useful in predicting the impact of interventions and determining optimal strategies for elimination.