Mathematical modelling to examine disease, control measures, vaccine interactions and resistance to guide public health and disease elimination strategies

Mathematical models are increasingly important to understand new and existing diseases and for planning how we tackle these diseases. Models with enough detail of how a disease interacts with the body, how drugs and other interventions affect the disease, and how health systems respond can help us...

Ongoing
01.09.2021 - 31.08.2023
Research project
Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny
Core Malaria Modelling

Core to our modelling work is the development and use of an individual-based model of malaria transmission dynamics known as OpenMalaria. This model is an open-source tool for simulating the dynamics of malaria transmission and epidemiology, and the impact of interventions on health and economic...

Ongoing
01.08.2021 - 31.07.2024
Research project
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
Disease Modelling, Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny , Nakul Chitnis
Mathematical models to define new malaria immunotherapies and interventions to meet public health needs

Despite recent progress in fighting malaria, there remains a need for new antimalarial interventions to protect children and other vulnerable populations who experience the highest burden of malaria.

Developing new interventions, such as vaccines, monoclonal antibodies and new drugs is...

Ongoing
01.02.2021 - 31.01.2024
Research project
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
Disease Modelling, Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny
Agent-based tracking of disease spread with dynamic models of travel behaviour in a pandemic

Epidemic models are essential tools to coordinate all aspects of the response to pandemics. Models can inform policy makers on strategies for vaccinations and testing, but also to trigger mitigation measure such as the ‘lockdowns’ used during the COVID-19 outbreak in Switzerland. Here, we propose to...

Ongoing
01.09.2020 - 31.08.2022
Research project
Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
Disease Modelling, Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny
MODCOVID - Using model-based evidence to optimise medical intervention profiles and disease management strategies for COVID-19 control

During the current COVID-19 pandemic governments have imposed varying social-distance measures, and since 2021 vaccines, to reduce infection incidence and associated disease burden of coronavirus infectious disease (COVID- 19). Guidance is needed to design optimal profiles of medical interventions...

Ongoing
01.06.2020 - 31.12.2022
Research project
Botnar Research Centre for Child Health (BRCCH)
Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics, Disease Modelling
Melissa Penny
Modeling support for BMGF Malaria Portfolio Analysis

In this project we provide modeling analysis and estimates of the public health impact of new innovations in the malaria product portfolio of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and partners. This model-based evidence combined with costs and economic analysis supports strategic decisions for...

Ongoing
01.11.2018 - 31.12.2020
Research project
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
Disease Modelling, Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny
PATH Malaria Vaccine Modelling

RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) is the world’s first malaria vaccine shown to provide partial protection against malaria in young children. In October 2021, WHO recommended widespread use of RTS,S among children in regions with moderate to high P. falciparum malaria transmission. This recommendation is based...

Ongoing
04.12.2017 - 31.03.2022
Research project
PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI)
Disease Modelling, Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny
MMC elimination costing

The project will generate evidence on the trade-offs between cost and effectiveness of malaria elimination interventions. This includes surveillance and a range of targeted and focal malaria elimination interventions when added incrementally to current levels of routine malaria control and case...

Ongoing
01.12.2017 - 31.10.2020
Research project
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
Disease Modelling, Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny
SNF_FP_modelling - Multi-scale mathematical modelling of parasite, drug and vaccine interactions: optimising public health and disease elimination strategies

Tremendous progress has been made over the last decades in controlling malaria. From 2000 to 2015 scale-up of control and curative interventions enabled a 60% reduction in malaria death rates and a 40% reduction in rate of clinical disease. Despite these gains, we face significant challenges if we...

Ongoing
01.07.2017 - 31.07.2021
Research project
Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
Disease Modelling, Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny
Developing a modelling framework for malaria transmission prevention tools

Following years of investment in strategies to control malaria, elimination is now being considered. But optimal delivery strategies and profiles for new tools for elimination differ from those of disease control. The efficacy profiles of new drugs, vaccines and vector control, along with how to...

Ongoing
01.05.2017 - 31.03.2018
Research project
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
Disease Modelling, Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics
Melissa Penny