Unit | Infectious Disease Modelling

The Infectious Disease Modelling unit makes use of techniques of computational sciences, statistics and mathematical modelling to better understand and to address contemporary issues in infectious disease and global health. Our main projects are on malaria, and other vector-borne diseases. We focus on understanding transmission dynamics, pathogenesis, and the impacts of health interventions in the contexts of real-world health systems.

Impact on Infectious Diseases

Our research helps to identify the potential of new innovations, such as new drugs or ways of killing mosquitoes. We investigate different strategies, and ways of allocating resources in order to achieve effective and equitable impact on infectious diseases.  We work closely with other major research institutions in low- and middle-income countries and in Switzerland. Our audience includes researchers, global health donors and public health policy makers.

Malaria Modelling Ressource Centre

The Malaria Modelling Resource Centre of this unit provides an outreach and response capacity enabling us to advise partners including malaria control programmes on the likely effects of different malaria interventions and integrated control strategies. This contributes to the Swiss TPH role as a WHO Collaborating Centre for Modelling, Monitoring and Training for Malaria Control and Elimination.



Melissa Penny

Melissa Penny, SNF Professor, PhD, PD

Laager M et al. A metapopulation model of dog rabies transmission in N'Djamena, Chad. J Theor Biol. 2019;462:408-417. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.11.027

Lee T.E, Penny M.A. Identifying key factors of the transmission dynamics of drug-resistant malaria. J Theor Biol. 2019;462:210-220. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.10.050

Meister I et al. Pooled population pharmacokinetic analysis of tribendimidine for the treatment of Opisthorchis viverrini infections. Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2019(in press). DOI: 10.1128/AAC.01391-18

Mhimbira F et al. Prevalence and clinical significance of respiratory viruses and bacteria detected in tuberculosis patients compared to household contact controls in Tanzania: a cohort study. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2019;25(1):107 e1-107 e7. DOI: 10.1016/j.cmi.2018.03.019

Multerer L, Smith T, Chitnis N. Modeling the impact of sterile males on an Aedes aegypti population with optimal control. Math Biosci. 2019(in press). DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2019.03.003