Increasing coverage of malaria vector control interventions globally has led to significant reductions in disease burden. However due to its high recurrent cost, there is a need to determine if and when vector control can be safely scaled back after transmission has been reduced. We conduct literature reviews and simulate a mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology to determine the impact of scaling back vector control on transmission and disease. We conduct regression analysis of simulation results to derive predicted probabilities of resurgence, severity of resurgence and time to resurgence under various settings.

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