CHAI - Modeling malaria transmission
Project Abstract
Modeling is increasingly used as a decision tool to support malaria endemic countries. The process of formulating and applying the model along with its outcomes can benefit decision-making. Modeling can provide recommendations of optimal stratification of interventions given fixed objectives such as malaria burden reduction and elimination with sensible timelines. They can also help understand historic or current malaria dynamics and assess the impact of interventions such as drug-based or vector control interventions. To achieve this, different methodologies can be applied, such as the use of deterministic compartmental or individual based stochastic models.
The Swiss Tropical Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) has been conducting modeling activities for the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) over the last five years to help malaria programs answer strategic and operational questions to support the planning and implementation of malaria control measures. Swiss TPH simulated various scenarios of stratification and their impact to forecast global commodities needs for malaria elimination. In Haiti, modelling has been used for decision-making at both national and subnational levels in collaboration with Malaria Zero Consortium to inform the Global Fund (GF) application, and the prioritization of nets and of operational units for MDA implementation. Swiss TPH has provided modelling support to inform 2020 GF application in various countries part of the High Burden to High Impact (HBHI) initiative launched by the World Health Organization (WHO). In particular, modelling evidence were included in Mozambique’s Concept Note for Global Fund funding. Additionally, the Swiss TPH team has developed a Vivax model to support countries with Plasmodium vivax transmission, which is currently used to advocate for community health worker testing programs in Panama, by simulating the negative impact of delaying access to treatment4.
Since 2020, the Swiss TPH team has been receiving direct support from the Gates Foundation to expand the development and application of such modeling approach to further countries, especially those part of the HBHI initiative. The main purpose of the grant is to refine and standardize the modeling framework and to facilitate its application in a variety of settings. Both projects (supported by CHAI and Gates) complement each other with a similar goal of facilitating the use modelling for in-country decision making. Increased country involvement has allowed cross-fertilization of ideas between modellers and decision makers, and a better understanding of how logistical and programmatic strengths and weaknesses may affect modelling recommendations. Through the direct BMGF support, the Swiss TPH team capacity was scaled up, allowing for further country focus and methodological improvements such as the parameterization of interventions effectiveness.
