Bayesian Modelling and Analysis

The Bayesian Modelling and Analysis group conducts research in advanced statistical modelling and Bayesian computation to support data-driven insights in public and global health. Our research focuses on spatio-temporal modelling and forecasting, and the modelling of multivariate health data, including the prediction and quantification of model uncertainty.

Spatio-temporal modelling is a key area of research for our group. We develop and apply Bayesian statistical methods for disease mapping, risk assessment and forecasting, with applications in malaria, neglected infectious diseases, cancer and mortality. These models generate spatially explicit estimates of disease exposure and burden, identify determinants of space–time disease distribution, and project future disease dynamics to inform public health decision-making.

Latest publications

All Publications

Alidou S et al. Risk factors associated with urogenital schistosomiasis: a multilevel assessment approach using an Oversampling Schistosomiasis Survey (SOS) community-based, Plateaux region, Togo 2022. BMJ Public Health. 2025;3(1):e001304. DOI: 10.1136/bmjph-2024-001304

Angelakis A, Nyawanda B.O, Vounatsou P. Modeling sparse Rift Valley fever incidence data: a Bayesian perspective on zero-inflated self-exciting and autoregressive models. BMC Infect Dis. 2025;25:1221. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-025-11506-0

Keita B.M et al. Piloting the Schistosomiasis Practical and Precision Assessment approach in five health districts of the N'zérékoré region, Republic of Guinea. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2025;19(10):e0013413. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013413

Kim J, Vounatsou P, Chun B.C. Distribution and risk factors of scrub typhus in South Korea, from 2013 to 2019: bayesian spatiotemporal analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2025;11:e68437. DOI: 10.2196/68437

Martin-Makowka A et al. [Preprint] Variation of malaria dynamics and its relationship to climate in western Kenya during 2008-2019: a wavelet approach, 2025. DOI: 10.7554/elife.103597.1

Nyawanda B.O, Ochomo E, Otieno J.D, Keitany K, Machini B.K, Vounatsou P. Climate, interventions, and malaria outcomes in a warming world: towards climate-smart malaria control in Kenya. Trop Med Infect Dis. 2025;10(12):335. DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed10120335