One Health in Social-Ecological Systems: Optimizing natural resources, livelihoods and health of humans and animals in Mongolia
A social-ecological systems (SES) approach was introduced by Elinor Ostrom for the strategic analyses of the sustainable use of natural resources such as rangelands, fishing grounds and forests. Her concept of “governing the commons” contradicts the so called “tragedy of the commons” that assumes that common pooled resources are inevitably overused and irreversibly destroyed.
We have expanded the SES approach to One Health in Social-Ecological Systems (OHSES) by including humans and animals as resource systems that contribute to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). The OHSES analysis framework uses game theory and mathematical modelling for strategy evaluation and comparison. It enables us to analyze the system's current situation and find possible Nash equilibria, Pareto-optimal solutions and best resource management strategies while maintaining sustainable ecosystem services.
An example of this is the elimination model of dog rabies in Africa that shows that coordinated mass dog vaccination is the best strategy for all countries, leading to human capital benefits of ten billion USD over a 30-year period with the possible elimination of the disease.
In the current project we propose a second case study of OHSES relating human and animal health and sustainable natural resource management as an example of healthy and sustainable livestock production in Mongolia. The Mongolian livestock (cattle, sheep, goats, horses) population increased from 25 million animals in 1990 to over 72 million animals in 2024. There are serious concerns that Mongolian pastures are overused and that livestock production is heading towards a “tragedy of the commons”. The Mongolian livestock farming sector faces a dilemma between the need to limit livestock production, effective disease control and the income of livestock farmers.
We address the following main question: What composition and number of livestock can sustain Mongolian pastoral production and human livelihoods? Sub-questions are:
- What is the relationship of stocking density and pastoral productivity?
- What is the carbon footprint of Mongolian pastoral livestock production?
- What is the herder income from livestock production under the current conditions and under the conditions of a value-chain approach reducing stocking density?
- What is the cost of disease of FMD and brucellosis from reduced livestock production and human health cost?
- What strategies of livestock production and disease control are Pareto efficient under the constraints of sustainable pastoral productivity and carbon neutrality?
Our approach develops an OHSES dynamic framework relating animal production and the associated income depending on pasture use and carbon storage balances. This will allow us to estimate a carbon neutral livestock carrying capacity for Mongolian pasture. In the second step, existing transmission models of brucellosis will be calibrated for Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) transmission. In the third step we compare the existing “high animal density – reduced productivity” strategy with the Mongolian National Federation of Pasture User Groups (MNFPUG) eco-certified pasture user groups with reduced stocking density and certified high quality animal products in a game theoretical framework to identify Pareto efficient equilibria while considering carbon neutrality and sustainable pastoral production constraints.
Expected scientific innovation: A case example validating the concept of OHSES, for pastoral carrying capacity for sustainable pastoral production in relation to respective carbon footprints. Policy briefs and recommendations will inform Mongolian agricultural, livestock / animal and public health policies. The OHSES concept is a methodological contribution to the One Health High Level Expert Panel (OHHLEP) definition of One Health.
The project is led by Jakob Zinsstag, Swiss TPH, and Beat Reidy, School of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences HAFL.