MOSASWA - MOSASWA Modelling Support

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (The Global Fund) has commissioned Swiss TPH to evaluate the impact of the Lubombo Spatial Development Initiative 2 (LSDI2) implementation of Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) by Tchau Tchau Malaria (Goodbye Malaria, TTM) in Southern Mozambique as part of the MOSASWA (Mozambique, South Africa and Eswatini) initiative. The evaluation included three topics: 1) epidemiological impact, 2) efficiency analysis, and 3) effectiveness evaluation.

The Analytics and Intervention Modelling group (AIM) led the evaluation together with the collaboration of the Swiss Centre for International Health (SCIH) and local consultants.

The results of the analyses has highlighted the importance of identifying the sources of importation of cases from Mozambique to South Africa and Eswatini. Therefore, a regional impact evaluation has been required to better understand the impact of spraying in the South of Mozambique. Results have been summarised in a publically available video. An initial summary of the work was presented during the annual meeting of the American Society for Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH) in 2021.

In order to continue this collaboration, LSDI2 has directly commissioned the AIM Group to create a connected model with data collated from the region that will inform on number of malaria cases, origin of cases, importation status as well as other epidemiological and intervention indicators. The model has been based on a similar connected model developed by the group for other projects.

The project is underway in close collaboration with Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) and the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) of Eswatini, Mozambique, South Africa. The main goal of the proposed modelling is to support evaluation of the MOSASWA initiative in its endeavour to achieve regional elimination.

In the MOSASWA region, modelling will be used to quantify the impact of various malaria interventions deployed in each of the three countries towards the goal of regional elimination. Operational costs associated with implementation of interventions packages will be analyzed to optimize effectiveness of the elimination strategy.

Our well-established engagement with the Mozambique NMCP as part of other projects, such as the High Burden to High Impact project from WHO and the ongoing subnational tailoring project, boosts the potential for impact in the region.

Involved Regions: Africa
Involved Countries: Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland


Osama Seidahmed

Project Facts