Group | Bayesian Modelling and Analysis

The Bayesian Modelling and Analysis Group conducts research in advanced statistical modelling and Bayesian computation to support data-driven insights in public and global health. Our research focuses on spatio-temporal modelling and forecasting, and the modelling of multivariate health data, including the prediction and quantification of model uncertainty.

Spatio-temporal modelling is a key area of research for our group. We develop and apply Bayesian statistical methods for disease mapping, risk assessment and forecasting, with applications in malaria, neglected infectious diseases, cancer and mortality. These models generate spatially explicit estimates of disease exposure and burden, identify determinants of space–time disease distribution, and project future disease dynamics to inform public health decision-making.

Latest Publications

All Publications

Alidou S et al. Risk factors associated with urogenital schistosomiasis: a multilevel assessment approach using an Oversampling Schistosomiasis Survey (SOS) community-based, Plateaux region, Togo 2022. BMJ Public Health. 2025;3(1):e001304. DOI: 10.1136/bmjph-2024-001304

Angelakis A, Nyawanda B.O, Vounatsou P. Modeling sparse Rift Valley fever incidence data: a Bayesian perspective on zero-inflated self-exciting and autoregressive models. BMC Infect Dis. 2025;25:1221. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-025-11506-0

Igboh L.S et al. Routine immunisation coverage in the context of seasonal influenza vaccine introduction for children in Nakuru and Mombasa counties in Kenya, 2019-21: an observational study. Lancet Glob Health. 2025;13(10):e1737-e1749. DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(25)00265-7

Isaiah P.M, Nyawanda B, Okoyo C, Oloo J.O, Steinmann P. Schistosomiasis status and health impact in preschool-aged children in hard-to-reach areas and populations of Homa Bay County, Kenya. Acta Trop. 2025;261:107511. DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107511

Isaiah P.M, Nyawanda B, Okoyo C, Steinmann P. Kato-Katz versus urine POC-CCA for the diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni in preschool-aged children in Homa Bay County, Kenya. Parasitol Res. 2025;124(2):25. DOI: 10.1007/s00436-025-08467-3