Health System Simulator - Health System and CVD Intervention Simulator Development in São Paulo, Brazil

Swiss TPH experts are developing a global decision support tool to be integrated into the Novartis Foundation’s Urban Population Health Initiative. This initiative aims to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and morbidity through comprehensive health systems strengthening. To achieve this goal, the Foundation has developed the comprehensive CARDIO approach whose pillars include improving the availability, quality, integration and use of data and information. The Urban Population Health Initiative aims to promote and improve data-driven, intersectoral decision-making processes that use the range of data available in cities with the goal of improving CVD health outcomes in the long term. 

One of the expected outcomes of the multi-city initiative is to improve local planning and budgeting cycles of health authorities by increasing data use for decision-making. In this context, Swiss TPH experts are developing a policy-relevant decision support tool using system dynamics modelling to inform population-level decision making on CVDs in initially one pilot city.

The decision support system will integrate medical, health systems, social, political and other contextual factors influencing the CVD burden. The model will provide actionable and policy-relevant information on the best strategies to maintain or expand the reduction of NCDs given existing available resources. The model will also account for resource and capacity constraints in the specific setting. The prototype will be co-developed in a local setting. This will also provide learnings on the best approach to integrate systems dynamic modelling and systems lens on decision-making processes in LMICs. The final tool will be scalable through a generic framework with adaptability to local, setting-specific contextual and systemic factors.



Peter Steinmann

Project Facts